Ever since he came into the league eight years ago in 2001 when he went 14–3 with a 2.73 ERA, Roy Oswalt has been the Astros’ most consistent player, and has always been at the forefront of the team’s greatest success.
He’s been a consistent winner every year, posting double digit win totals each year, and twice winning 20 games back-to-back in 2004 and 2005, a rare feat accomplished in this era. He’s won as a result of great pitches, great control, and intelligence, equating to a 3.13 career ERA, fourth among active starters, which has enabled him to win so many games. He’s also been remarkably durable, finishing under 30 starts only twice, in ’01, his rookie year, and 2003 when he had a prolonged groin injury that sidelined him frequently throughout the season.
Now Oswalt, turning 33 in August, is entering his ninth year has the Astros’ ace. With his constant high level of success, his clutch performances down the stretch in the pennant races and playoffs, Roy-O has never given a reason to doubt his credibility, and his stamina. But pitchers are harder to predict than anybody, and there’s always a few questions coming in, this year in particular. This was the first year Oswalt has pitched in the World Baseball Classic. There is no way to tell how this will affect his stamina, particularly down the stretch, when he has already pitched more innings than he is used to.
At 32, and with his generally small body frame, he may be just before the point where he might start to lose a little. It might be the bite on his curveball, or the edge on his fastball. Any slight change in those pitches could change his approach drastically. Pitchers with particularly small frames like Oswalt, who is 6’ 0” and 185 pounds, and who throw hard, and extend their arms, typically struggle to maintain the stamina and strength that they are used too, and sometimes it’s difficult for them to adjust, if they ever adjust. If and when it happens to Oswalt, the adjustments he makes will determine how much longer he can go. But if there is one thing that Oswalt has been able to do over his career is adjust. And with his work ethic, and his competitiveness, there is no reason to question his ability until it happens.
However, it is important for the Astros to keep it in their mind, if they expect to have success in the future. Oswalt is far and away the ace of the staff. He gives them the best chance to win every time he takes the field, and he eats innings, the two most important attributes of a pitcher. But after Oswalt, the depth and the talent aren’t comforting, and if he should succumb to injury, there is no way to replace him. There isn’t a budding pitching prospect on the horizon, and there isn’t a reliable starter in the projected rotation.
Wandy Rodriguez, slated to be the number two starter, is probably their next best option. He is a solid pitcher with a good overhand curveball, but he doesn’t go deep into games, and sometimes he doesn’t have the mindset to get out of jams when he gets into trouble, and that typically leads to inconsistency.
Brandon Backe, currently third in the rotation, continues to live off his magnificent performances in the postseason, but that time ago keeps getting longer, and he’s never done anything over the long season. He has either been injured, or ineffective, last year going 9–14 with a 6.05 ERA, which resulted from wildness, and giving up homeruns, a whopping 36 last year.
Mike Hampton is in the fourth slot. While he’s had a solid career, and has a unique repertoire for a lefty, is coming off two injury-plagued seasons. There is no reason to have inflated expectations for someone who hasn’t pitched in the majors over that long a period. Any brief success would be more than satisfying if he can remain on the mound.
Brian Moehler in the fifth spot was probably the biggest surprise last year, going 11–8 with a 4.56 ERA in 26 starts, which is certainly adequate for a fourth a fifth starter and easily one of his better years, but nothing more. And while he doesn’t throw hard, Moehler, at 37, and in his 13th year, struggles to go five innings, and it probably wouldn’t be good to force him to go more. Expecting anything better than what he did last year would be a stretch.
Maybe somebody comes out of nowhere, but that kind of naïve mindset, generally sets up for failure, and not the best way to address the issue of really not having anybody to be confident in. The only one to be confident in is Oswalt, the role of ace, who takes the pressure off the entire team. There is pressure off the rest of the rotation from having to perform as well as Oswalt everyday. The bullpen can relax because Oswalt usually goes seven innings and keeps the relievers’ workload down. And the hitters can relax because they know that sometimes they only have put up one or two runs and Oswalt can take care of the rest. But any type of injury or waiver in his performance, than the Astros border on a below-average team that likely won’t make the playoffs.
But one thing Oswalt has always proven, as with most great players, is that he finds a way to win even when he’s not at his best, and that is what’s made him great for this long and probably will continue to make him great.